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In 1654 Pascal and Fermat corresponded on the fair division of the stakes in gambling games that got interrupted mid-way. Fermat reasoned , counting the proportion of wins in imagined continued play. Pascal argued , establishing fair prices for all intermediate states. Pascal and Fermat arrived at the same answer, yet their methods make different assumptions and generalise in different ways.

Today, game-theoretic probability is an alternative foundation for probability theory. It goes beyond Kolmogorov's axiomatic (measure-theoretic) framework by considering an underlying dimension. We will start with various classical laws of probability and re-prove them in the following form. In an infinite game where we are allowed to bet on the outcomes sequentially, we have a that accumulates infinite wealth unless the sequence of outcomes satisfies the probability law. This will be the sense in which we can the law, no matter how the outcomes arise.

We will study the (intricate) strategies underlying such theorems. Throughout the course we will see how the generality of the framework allows us to reduce assumptions, clarify interpretation, and open up applications to other areas of science. In particular we will look at one application in machine learning in the form of .

The first two weeks are devoted to six lectures with associated homework. The last two weeks will be individual projects with one progress meeting midway.

Lectures are from 10:00 to 12:00, CWI, rooms L016, L017 or L120.

Reports are due on June 24.

An introductory probability course is indispensable. Familiarity with two-player zero-sum games will be an advantage. A good level of mathematical maturity is required, the strategies that will be considered are not simple.

Students will be assessed on the basis of six homeworks and a final report. The written report should provide either some (small) original result or a survey of some of the literature with a new perspective.

Each homework counts for 10% and the final report counts for 40% of the grade.

The course will cover the first half of the the book Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk. I will lecture from the book but do my best to keep the course self-contained. In particular I will post lecture notes.

Website dedicated to the book . You can read chapters 1, 3 and 9 online.

The on-line prediction wiki has a section about Game-Theoretic Probability .

To get inspiration and ideas for your project topic, you can browse the list of working papers on the book website. A broader selection of related topics can be found in the archives of the Workshop on GTP and related topics below.

Politics 29

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic late on Thursday showed Papua New Guinea's official note rescinding its recognition of Kosovo as an independent state.

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This is the sixth country to have done so in the past several years.

Ethnic Albanians in Serbia's southern province of Kosovo (officially: Kosovo and Metohija, KiM) unilaterally declared independence ten years ago, in 2008 - a declaration that Serbia continues to regard as a violation of its Constitution and territorial integrity. Kosovo has in the meantime not managed to join the UN - while Statement Clutch Rubino Vain Purple Red by Tony Rubino Tony Rubino Cheap Original Finishline Sale Online Sale Brand New Unisex wQukj7K
also refuse to recognize it as independent. Dacic - who also serves as first deputy prime minister in the Serbian government - used a news conference called to mark one year in office of the current government to say that the six countries that recognized Kosovo, and then withdrew their recognition, have a combined territory of 800,000 square kilometers - "ten times bigger than Serbia" - and 25 million inhabitants. "Very often these countries are treated with disrespect, we say they are small and irrelevant. How come they were relevant when they recognized Kosovo - but now that they're revoking that recognition, they are not important... this is a great success for our state," Dacic - Foldaway Tote StarAnise Tote by VIDA VIDA Buy For Sale Low Price Cheap Online Clearance Great Deals Where Can You Find 6Oj0HEy
- said on Thursday. He also stressed that Serbia would "continue with this work" regardless of the amount of pressure it faces. "We are not fighting Pristina (Kosovo). You know who we are fighting - their mentors and protectors, who, as soon as we receive these notes (rescinding recognition)... I now expect them to travel to Papua to see if they really revoked it. That is why we, on Monday, are sending (Serbian) Agriculture Minister Branislav Nedimovic to Liberia (the previous country that revoked its recognition) - it's because we must fight everywhere," Dacic said. "(Kosovo Foreign Minister) Pacolli posts various tweets," Dacic continued, "they refute, they lie. We have (diplomatic) notes from six states revoking their recognition of Kosovo as an independent state, saying they will respect the results, the negotiations, and agreements reached in the Brussels dialogue. I think this is a great contribution, by these six countries - five have done it during the one year in office of this (Serbian) government."

Read more

Matic reacts to Belgrade Bar Association initiative

Chinese president invites Serbian counterpart to visit

Storm causes massive damage in western Serbia

"Journalism has become one of most dangerous occupations"

Comments 29

The Serbian government passed a Decision on setting up a Commission for the fight against drug abuse in schools.




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Wed, 06/27/2018 - 15:32

CourtesyMary Ann Newton comes this photo, taken Tuesday night, June 26, showing the smoke plume from a barge fire on the Duwamish River , along with the moon and Mt. Rainier (click image to view larger version):

Wed, 06/27/2018 - 12:23

A new creative contest – the Bigfoot Northwest Script Challenge – is ready to award $6,500 and unparalleled Hollywood access to the next great voices in screenwriting.

Top film industry professionals are set to award two grand prize winners and one runner up in three categories: original screenplay, television pilot, and digital short. Winners will be announced at theSeattle Film Summit on November 17-18, 2018, at the Hyatt Regency Lake Washington.

The competition aims to raise the Northwest’s profile as a filmmaking powerhouse as entrants compete for exclusive fellowships at the most famous studios in Hollywood and local producers from Seattle’s vibrant indie film community.

The Bigfoot fellowships are designed to advance a writer’s material and career by pairing them with a notable industry professional that could pave the way for a writer to see their work on the big screen.

“Fellowships are a smart and relatively easy way to do something that’s extremely hard: get your work seen by someone who can actually make a difference,” said Sean Robbins of Broken Road Productions.

The first fellowship announced will be with Mr. Robbins’ Paramount Studios’ company, Broken Road Productions. He is a producer of Tom Cruise’s “Knight and Day” and Jeremy Renner’s new movie, “TAG,” a Northwest-based movie.

The contest has an impressive panel of judges who will meet with contest winners for exclusive, 1-on-1 Hollywood-style sit-downs.

“The Pacific Northwest has a pool of talent that hasn’t been fully tapped,” said Bigfoot Northwest Script Challenge co-founder and Hollywood screenwriter, Jon Keasey. “We’re excited to bring the Northwest together with Hollywood in the hopes of generating some amazing content.”

Submissions advancing in the competition will be read by some of the top names in Hollywood, like Chris Lockhart, story editor at talent agency juggernaut WME, and John Cheng, President of Kevin Hart’s HeartBeat Productions, plus other notables from the Northwest film community.

Writers have until October 15, 2018 to submit their screenplays. Cheaper entry fees are available now but will increase closer to the deadline. Writers 18 years of age from all countries and backgrounds who have earned less than $50,000 (or foreign equivalent) for work as a screenwriter are strongly encouraged to submit their best material.

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Wed, 06/27/2018 - 11:34

Proudly in its 97th year, the city of Burien’s 4th of July Independence day parade – sponsored by PCC Community Markets and Yarington Funeral Home – is the oldest and one of the best attended in King County.

The parade will start at 3 p.m. on Wednesday, July 4, and will runapproximatelytwo hours.

The event is also officially sanctioned by SEAFAIR as a Seafair Community Event.

“Seafair believes in celebrating the traditions of our region, resources and diverse residents. The thirty festivals and parades selected as Seafair Community events are important elements of our healthy communities,” the Seafair Foundation said.

Every year, thousands of spectators gather along the parade route in downtown Burien to see marching bands, floats, Seafair Pirates and much more.

Staging will happen on SW 153rd Street, east of Ambaum between 6th and 4th Ave SW, then starts the route east along SW 153rd turning North onto 2nd Ave SW. A turn will follow west onto SW 152nd to 4th where the route will head north to the entrance of City Hall, turning East and following along Town Square Park on 5th Ave SW. The final turn will be onto SW 152nd heading West and dispersing at 8th Ave SW and SW 151st Street.

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“We’d love to see you! Many local restaurants and businesses are planning to stay open especially for the parade and will be offering specials.”

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“We’re looking forward to celebrating this 4th of July with all of you in Burien!”

 The Discover Burien Association is a non-profit 501(c)3 corporation working on economic development, business recruitment retention, education, promotion and marketing of the Burien community. We are a membership based organization, but do not limit our services to only members, we include the entire Burien business community. We work with Burien businesses to find solutions to their problems to help educate or direct to resources that are available. We also work as a liaison between businesses and city hall to help streamline issues. Membership and contributions are tax deductible.

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Wed, 06/27/2018 - 08:52
Tickets on sale now! The Lion King Jr. July 12-15 The Burien Annex

Join Simba, Rafiki, Mufasa, Timon and Pumbaa for this classic story of a lion cub prince who leaves the Pride Lands behind after an unthinkable tragedy,

Into The Woods September 8-23 Highline Performing Arts Center

Follow a Baker and his wife, who wish to have a child; Cinderella, who wishes to attend the King’s Festival; and Jack, who wishes his cow would give milk. When the Baker and his wife learn they cannot have a child because of a Witch’s curse, they set off on a journey to break the curse. They are helped, and hindered, by Little Red, a Wolf, two charming princes and Rapunzel. Everyone’s wish is granted, but the consequences of their actions return to haunt them with disastrous results.

Tickets on sale now!
Tue, 06/26/2018 - 12:08

: Burien Arts Association is seeking Art and Artists for its 11h annual Vision 20/20 Art Auction on Nov. 17, 2018.

Vision 20/20 is an annual art auction sponsored by the Burien Arts Association each November.

The main auction pieces are the works of 50 artists who have produced nine new works of art each on 8’ x 8” inch panels in a medium of their choosing.

Photography is not an allowed medium (sorry).

Burien Arts provides the panels.

Artists can also submit existing works of any size to offer in a silent auction

The auction will take place this year on Saturday, Nov. 17, from 6:30 – 10:30 p.m. at the Burien Community Center, 14700 6th Ave SW, Burien, WA.

The event usually draws 300+ art lovers.

Each 8” x 8” panel is priced at $40 with a 50/50 split of the commission between the artist and Burien Arts. The silent auction items have the same commission structure.

Any unsold art is returned to the artist at the end of the event.

Interested artists should complete the entry form , which includes photos of their work. A jury of Burien Arts board members and volunteers will review the applications.

The event timeline is:

Proceeds from the auction go to support the ongoing programs of the Burien Arts Association such as monthly art exhibits, art lessons for children, a monthly poetry reading, Shakespeare in the Park, concerts, and face painting at community events.

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with any questions you may have.

Burien Arts is a non-profit community arts organization founded in the early 1960s with the mission to enrich Burien through the arts. For more information, please visit our website at .

DEADLINE July 16: Call for artists for 8”x8” panels closes
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